THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND ITS IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 29-38

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ҚАЗАҚСТАН РЕСПУБЛИКАСЫ ҰЛТТЫҚ ҒЫЛЫМ АКАДЕМИЯСЫНЫҢ

Х А Б А Р Ш Ы С Ы

PUBLISHED SINCE 1944

6 (394)

NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2021

ALMATY, NAS RK

ВЕСТНИК

НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ АКАДЕМИИ НАУК РЕСПУБЛИКИ КАЗАХСТАН

THE BULLETIN

THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

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in this index is under consideration by Clarivate Analytics to be accepted in the Science Citation Index Expanded, the Social Sciences Citation Index, and the Arts & Humanities Citation Index.

The quality and depth of content Web of Science offers to researchers, authors, publishers, and institutions sets it apart from other research databases. The inclusion of Bulletin of NAS RK in the Emerging Sources Citation Index demonstrates our dedication to providing the most relevant and influential multidiscipline content to our community.

Қазақстан Республикасы Ұлттық ғылым академиясы «ҚР ҰҒА Хабаршысы» ғылыми журналының Web of Science-тің жаңаланған нұсқасы Emerging Sources Citation Index-те индекстелуге қабылданғанын хабарлайды. Бұл индекстелу барысында Clarivate Analytics компаниясы журналды одан әрі the Science Citation Index Expanded, the Social Sciences Citation Index және the Arts & Humanities Citation Index-ке қабылдау мәселесін қарастыруда.

Web of Science зерттеушілер, авторлар, баспашылар мен мекемелерге контент тереңдігі мен сапасын ұсынады. ҚР ҰҒА Хабаршысының Emerging Sources Citation Index- ке енуі біздің қоғамдастық үшін ең өзекті және беделді мультидисциплинарлы контентке адалдығымызды білдіреді.

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Содержание в этом индексировании находится в стадии рассмотрения компанией Clarivate Analytics для дальнейшего принятия журнала в the Science Citation Index Expanded, the Social Sciences Citation Index и the Arts & Humanities Citation Index. Web of Science предлагает качество и глубину контента для исследователей, авторов, издателей и учреждений. Включение Вестника НАН РК в Emerging Sources Citation Index демонстрирует нашу приверженность к наиболее актуальному и влиятельному мультидисциплинарному контенту для нашего сообщества.

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3 Бас редактор:

ҚОЙГЕЛДИЕВ Мәмбет Құлжабайұлы (бас редактор), тарих ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 3

Редакция алқасы:

ОМАРОВ Бауыржан Жұмаханұлы (бас редактордың орынбасары), филология ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Нұр-Сұлтан, Қазақстан) H = 4

МАТЫЖАНОВ Кенжехан Слямжанұлы, филология ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА корреспондент мүшесі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H =1

САПАРБАЕВ Әбдіжапар Жұманұлы, экономика ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА құрметті мүшесі, Халықаралық инновациялық технологиялар академиясының президенті (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 4

ЙОВИЦА Раду Патетре, Ph.D (археология), Нью-Йорк университетінің профессоры (Нью-Йорк, АҚШ) H = 19

БАНАС Йозеф, әлеуметтану ғылымдарының докторы, Жешув технологиялық университетінің профессоры (Жешув, Польша) H = 26

ЛУКЬЯНЕНКО Ирина Григорьевна, экономика ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, Украинаның еңбек сіңірген ғылым және техника қайраткері, «Киев-Мохила академиясы» ұлттық университетінің кафедра меңгерушісі (Киев, Украина) H = 2

МАКУЛОВА Айымжан Төлегенқызы, экономика ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, Нархоз Университеті (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 3

ИСМАҒҰЛОВ Оразақ Исмағұлұлы, тарих ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Нұр-Сұлтан, Қазақстан) H = 6

ӘБЖАНОВ Ханкелді Махмұтұлы, тарих ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 4

БИЖАНОВ Ахан Хұсайынұлы, саясаттану ғылымдарының докторы, ҚР ҰҒА корреспондент-мүшесі, Философия, саясаттану және дінтану институтының директоры (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 1

ТАЙМАҒАМБЕТОВ Жакен Қожахметұлы, тарих ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 4

СҮЛЕЙМЕНОВ Майдан Күнтуарұлы, заң ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 1

САБИКЕНОВ Салахиден Нұрсарыұлы, заң ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 2

ҚОЖАМЖАРОВА Дариякул Пернешқызы, тарих ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 2

БАЙТАНАЕВ Бауыржан Әбішұлы, тарих ғылымдарының докторы, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 1

БАЗАРБАЕВА Зейнеп Мүслімқызы, филология ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 1

ШАУКЕНОВА Зарема Каукенқызы, әлеуметтану ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 1

ЖОЛДАСБЕКОВА Баян Өмірбекқызы, филология ғылымдарының докторы, професор, ҚР ҰҒА корреспондент мүшесі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 2

НУРҚАТОВА Ляззат Төлегенқызы, әлеуметтану ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА корреспондент мүшесі (Алматы, Қазақстан) H = 1

ӘБІЛҚАСЫМОВА Алма Есімбекқызы, педагогика ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, ҚР ҰҒА академигі, Ресей білім академиясының академигі (Мәскеу қ.), Педагогикалық білім беруді дамыту орталығының директоры (Алматы, Қазақстан) Н = 1

ШИШОВ Сергей Евгеньевич, педагогика ғылымдарының докторы, профессор, педагогика кафедрасының меңгерушісі, К.Г. Разумовский атындағы Мәскеу мемлекеттік технологиялар және басқару университетінің Әлеуметтік-гуманитарлық ғылымдар және технологиялар факультетінің деканы (Мәскеу, Ресей) Н = 34

ДИБО Анна Владимировна, филология ғылымдарының докторы, РҒА корреспондент-мүшесі, РҒА Тіл білімі институтының Орал-алтай тілдері бөлімінің меңгерушісі (Мәскеу, Ресей) Н = 3

«Қазақстан Республикасы Ұлттық ғылым академиясының Хабаршысы».

ISSN 2518-1467 (Online), ISSN 1991-3494 (Print).

Меншіктенуші: «Қазақстан Республикасының Ұлттық ғылым академиясы» РҚБ (Алматы қ.).Қазақстан Республикасының Ақпарат және коммуникациялар министрлігінің Ақпарат комитетінде 12.02.2018 ж. берілген

№ 16895-Ж мерзімдік басылым тіркеуіне қойылу туралы куәлік.

Тақырыптық бағыты: әлеуметтік ғылымдар саласындағы зерттеулерге арналған.

Мерзімділігі: жылына 6 рет.

Тиражы: 300 дана.

Редакцияның мекен-жайы: 050010, Алматы қ., Шевченко көш., 28, 219 бөл., тел.: 272-13-19 http://www.bulletin-science.kz/index.php/en/

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Г л а в н ы й р е д а к т о р:

КОЙГЕЛЬДИЕВ Мамбет Кулжабаевич (главный редактор), доктор исторических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 3

Р е д а к ц и о н н а я к о л л е г и я:

ОМАРОВ Бауыржан Жумаханулы (заместитель главного редактора), доктор филологических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК (Нур-Султан, Казахстан) H = 4

МАТЫЖАНОВ Кенжехан Слямжанович, доктор филологических наук, профессор, член-корреспондент НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 1

САПАРБАЕВ Абдижапар Джуманович, доктор экономических наук, профессор, почетный член НАН РК, президент Международной академии инновационных технологий (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 4

ЙОВИЦА Раду Пэтрэ, доктор философии (Ph.D, археология), профессор Нью-Йоркского университета (Нью-Йорк, США) H = 19

БАНАС Йозеф, доктор социологических наук, профессор Жешувского технологического университета (Жешув, Польша) H = 26

ЛУКЬЯНЕНКО Ирина Григорьевна, доктор экономических наук, профессор, заслуженный деятель науки и техники Украины, заведующая кафедрой Национального университета «Киево-Могилянская академия»

(Киев, Украина) H = 2

МАКУЛОВА Айымжан Тулегеновна, доктор экономических наук, профессор, Университет Нархоз (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 3

ИСМАГУЛОВ Оразак Исмагулович, доктор исторических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК (Нур-Султан, Казахстан) H = 6

АБЖАНОВ Ханкелди Махмутович, доктор исторических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 4

БИЖАНОВ Ахан Хусаинович, доктор политических наук, член-корреспондент НАН РК, директор Института философии, политологии и религии (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 1

ТАЙМАГАМБЕТОВ Жакен Кожахметович, доктор исторических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 4

СУЛЕЙМЕНОВ Майдан Кунтуарович, доктор юридических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 1

САБИКЕНОВ Салахиден Нурсариевич, доктор юридических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 2

КОЖАМЖАРОВА Дариякуль Пернешевна, доктор исторических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 2

БАЙТАНАЕВ Бауржан Абишевич, доктор исторических наук, академик НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 1

БАЗАРБАЕВА Зейнеп Муслимовна, доктор филологических наук, профессор, член-корреспондент НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 1

ШАУКЕНОВА Зарема Каукеновна, доктор социологических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 1

ЖОЛДАСБЕКОВА Баян Омирбековна, доктор филологических наук, профессор, член-корреспондент НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 2

НУРКАТОВА Ляззат Толегеновна, доктор социологических наук, профессор, член-корреспондент НАН РК (Алматы, Казахстан) H = 1

АБЫЛКАСЫМОВА Алма Есимбековна, доктор педагогических наук, профессор, академик НАН РК, академик Российской академии образования (г. Москва), директор Центра развития педагогического образования (Алматы, Казахстан) Н = 1

ШИШОВ Сергей Евгеньевич, доктор педагогических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой педагогики, декан факультета Социально-гуманитарных наук и технологий Московского государственного университета технологий и управления имени К.Г. Разумовского (Москва, Россия) Н = 34

ДЫБО Анна Владимировна, доктор филологических наук, член-корреспондент РАН, заведующий отделом урало-алтайских языков Института языкознания РАН (Москва, Россия) Н = 3

«Вестник Национальной академии наук Республики Казахстан».

Собственник: РОО «Национальная академия наук Республики Казахстан» (г. Алматы). Свидетельство о постановке на учет периодического печатного издания в Комитете информации Министерства информации и коммуникаций и Республики Казахстан № 16895-Ж, выданное 12.02.2018 г.

Тематическая направленность: посвящен исследованиям в области социальных наук.

Периодичность: 6 раз в год.

Тираж: 300 экземпляров.

Адрес редакции: 050010, г. Алматы, ул. Шевченко, 28, ком. 219, тел. 272-13-19 http://www.bulletin-science.kz/index.php/en/

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5 E d i t o r i n c h i e f:

KOIGELDIEV Mambet Kulzhabaevich (Editor-in-Chief), Doctor of History, Professor, Academician of NAS RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 3

E d i t o r i a l b o a r d:

OMAROV Bauyrzhan Zhumakhanuly (Deputy Editor-in-Chief), Doctor of Philology, Professor, Academician of NAS RK (Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan) H = 4

MATYZHANOV Kenzhekhan Slyamzhanovich, Doctor of Philology, Professor, Corresponding Member of NAS RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 1

SAPARBAYEV Abdizhapar Dzhumanovich, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Honorary Member of NAS RK, President of the International Academy of Innovative Technology, (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 4

JOVICA Radu Petre, Ph.D, History, Archeology, Professor, New York University (New York, USA) H = 19

BANAS Joseph, Doctor of Social science, Professor, Rzeszow University of Technology (Rzeszow, Poland) H = 26

LUKYANENKO Irina, doctor of economics, professor, honored worker of Science and Technology of Ukraine, head of the department of the National University «Kyiv-Mohyla Academy» (Kiev, Ukraine) H = 2

MAKULOVA Ayymzhan Tulegenovna, doctor of economics, professor, Narkhoz University (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 3

ISSMAGULOV Orazak Issmagulovich, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Academician of NAS RK (Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan) H = 6

ABZHANOV Khankeldi Makhmutovich, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Academician of NAS RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 4

BIZHANOV Akhan Khusainovich, Doctor of Political Sciences, Corresponding Member of NAS RK, Director of the Institute of Philosophy, Political Science and Religion (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 1

TAIMAGAMBETOV Zhaken Kozhakhmetovich, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Academician of NAS RK, (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 4

SULEYMENOV Maidan Kuntuarovich, Doctor of Law, Professor, Academician of NAS RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 1

SABIKENOV Salakhiden Nursarievich, Doctor of Law, Professor, Academician of NAS RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 2

KOZHAMZHAROVA Dariyakul Perneshevna, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Academician of NAS RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 2

BAITANAEV Baurzhan Abishevich, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Academician of NAS RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 1

BAZARBAYEVA Zeinep Muslimovna, Doctor of Philology, Professor, Academician of NAS RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 1

SHAUKENOVA Zarema, Doctor of Sociology, Professor, Academician of NAS RK (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H =1 DZHOLDASBEKOVA Bayan Umirbekovna, Doctor of Philology, Professor, Corresponding Member of NAS RK H = 2

NURKATOVA Lyazzat Tolegenovna, Doctor of Social Sciences, Professor, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Almaty, Kazakhstan) H = 1

ABYLKASYMOVA Alma Yessimbekovna, Doctor of Pedagogical Sciences, Professor, Academician of NAS RK, academician of the Russian Academy of Education (Moscow), Director of the Center for the Development of Pedagogical Education (Almaty, Kazakhstan) Н = 1

SHISHOV Sergey, Doctor of Pedagogical Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Pedagogy, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities and Technologies of the Razumovsky Moscow State University of Technologies and Management (Moscow, Russia) Н = 34

DYBO Anna Vladimirovna, Doctor of Philology, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Department of Ural-Altaic Languages of the Institute of Linguistics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia) Н = 3

Bulletin of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Owner: RPA «National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan» (Almaty). The certificate of registration of a periodical printed publication in the Committee of information of the Ministry of Information and Communications of the Republic of Kazakhstan No. 16895-Ж, issued on 12.02.2018.

Thematic focus: it is dedicated to research in the field of social sciences.

Periodicity: 6 times a year.

Circulation: 300 copies.

Editorial address: 28, Shevchenko str., of. 220, Almaty, 050010, tel. 272-13-19 http://www.bulletin-science.kz/index.php/en/

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BULLETIN OF NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

ISSN 1991-3494

Volume 6, Number 394 (2021), 29-38 https://doi.org/10.32014/2021.2518-1467.199 UDC 336.761.6

IRSTI 06.73.55

Zhagyparova A.O.^1*, Alibekova B.¹, Kurmanalina A.², Bekbusinova G.K.³, Bayeva D.A⁴

1Eurasian National University named after L.N. Gumilev, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan;

2Karaganda University of Kazpotrebsoy, Karagandy, Kazakhstan;

3Turan-Astana University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan;

4South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russia.

E-mail: [email protected]

THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND ITS IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a powerful shock to the world community and has led to a sharp decline in the economy of many countries around the world. According to the baseline forecast, global GDP is expected to shrink by 5.2 percent in 2020 – this recession in the global economy will be the deepest in many decades.

The pandemic triggered the deepest recession in the global economy in many decades. Although the final consequences are still unclear, the pandemic will lead to a recession in the vast majority of emerging and developing countries. It will also entail long-term negative consequences for labor productivity and potential output. The priority strategic objectives at this stage are to mitigate the consequences for people and reduce economic damage in the near future. With the crisis easing, it will be necessary to convincingly reaffirm the commitment to sustainable policies and implement the necessary reforms to strengthen the long-term prospects. Special significance.

Some regional economies before the pandemic relied on short-term capital inflows to finance high current account deficits.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sharp depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which makes economies more vulnerable to capital outflows and at the same time limits the ability of central banks to mitigate the consequences of further negative external shocks.

The protracted nature of the pandemic or a sharp reassessment of investor sentiment, caused by concerns about asset quality, can lead to a cascade of defaults and an increase in problem loans.

Key words: COVID-19 pandemic, world economy, GDP, crisis, economic downturn.

Introduction. Most emerging market economies and developing countries will see per capita income declines this year. The pandemic has highlighted the urgent need for policy action to mitigate its impact, protect vulnerable populations and strengthen countries’ ability to cope with similar events in the future. In addition, it is extremely important to address the problems associated with informal labor relations and the limited scope of social protection systems, as well as to carry out reforms to ensure strong and sustainable economic growth [1].

Table 1. Real and projected GDP indicators for the period from 2017-2021 of the countries of the world.

Real GDP Difference in percentage points com-

pared to forecasts for January 2020 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f 2020f 2021f

World 3,3 3,0 2,4 -5,2 4,2 -7,7 1,6

Advanced economies 2,5 2,1 1,6 -7,0 3,9 -8,4 2,4

USA 2,4 2,9 2,3 -6,1 4,0 -7,9 2,3

Euro zone 2,5 1,9 1,2 -9,1 4,5 -10,1 3,2

Japan 2,2 0,3 0,7 -6,1 2,5 -6,8 1,9

Emerging market and developing

countries (EMDEs) 4,5 4,3 3,5 -2,5 4,6 -6,6 0,3

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China 6,8 6,6 6,1 1,0 6,9 -4,9 1,1

Europe and Central Asia 4,1 3,3 2,2 -4,7 3,6 -7,3 0,7

the Russian Federation 1,8 2,5 1,3 -6,0 2,7 -7,6 0,9

Turkey 7,5 2,8 0,9 -3,8 5,0 -6,8 1,0

Middle East and North Africa 1,1 0,9 -0,2 -4,2 2,3 -6,6 -0,4

Saudi Arabia -0,7 2,4 0,3 -3,8 2,5 -5,7 0,3

Iran 3,8 -4,7 -8,2 -5,3 2,1 -5,3 1,1

South Asia 6,5 6,5 4,7 -2,7 2,8 -8,2 -3,1

Otherdefinitions:

Real GDP¹

High-incomecountries 2,4 2,2 1,7 -6,8 3,8 -8,3 2,3

Developingcountries 4,8 4,4 3,7 -2,4 4,7 -6,7 0,2

Low-incomecountries 5,4 5,8 5,0 1,0 4,6 -4,4 -0,9

BRICS 5,3 5,3 4,7 -1,7 5,3 -6,6 0,4

Worldwide (basedon PPP, 2010) 3,9 3,6 2,9 -4,1 4,3 -7,3 1,0

World tradevolume 5,9 4,0 0,8 -13,4 5,3 -15,3 2,8

Commodityprices

Oil prices 23,3 29,4 -10,2 -47,9 18,8 -42,5 16,9

Non-energy commodity price index 5,5 1,8 -4,2 -5,9 3,0 -6,0 1,3 Source: World Bank.

* e = evaluation; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information to reflect changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, the forecasts presented here may differ from those contained in other bank documents, even in cases where the main assessments of the country's prospects do not differ significantly at any given time.

In China, where production is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, production in both advanced and emerging and developing economies is projected to remain below 2019 levels even next year. ... Countries that rely more on contact-intensive services and oil exporters face the prospect of a weaker recovery than those with manufacturing-oriented economies.

Figure 1.Manufacturing and retail (Index, Dec 2019 = 100; seasonally adjusted)

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Materials and methods. The methods used are general scientific and special, such as: a system analysis method; content analysis method; comparative analysis method; analysis and synthesis method; system approach method.

Results. GDP for the second quarter, on the balance sheet, brought positive surprises.

When the economy reopened and spending caps were lifted, overall activity returned to normal faster than expected in the June 2020 WEO update. Q2 GDP figures were unexpected in terms of growth in China (where government investment helped boost activity and return to positive growth in the second quarter following the easing of restrictions in early April), as well as in the United States and the Eurozone (where both economies contracted in Q2 was historic but less severe than forecast, and government transfers supported household income). However, the news was not overwhelmingly positive.

Reopening stopped. Faced with renewed increases in the number of cases, countries slowed down reopening in August and, in some cases, re-established a partial lock [2-4].

The deep wounds inflicted on the global economy by the pandemic recession are even more evident in labor market indicators and inflation outcomes.

Labor market. According to the International Labor Organization, the global reduction in working hours in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 was equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs, compared with 155 million lost in the first quarter. Women in the workforce, especially those who are informally employed, have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic and the necessary quarantine measures to slow the spread of the virus: the International Labor Organization estimates that 42 percent of informally employed women work in hard-hit sectors of the economy, compared with about 32 percent of men in informal employment.

In emerging and developing economies, inflation fell sharply during the early stages of the pandemic, although it has since risen sharply in some countries of the district (for example, in India, reflecting supply disruptions and rising food prices).

Figure 2. Purchasing Managers’ Indices 2020 (Index; 50+ = extension)

The scale of the destruction shows that without a vaccine and effective treatments to fight the virus, such sectors face an especially difficult return to any semblance of normalcy.

Strong rebound in Q3, but slower growth in Q4. High frequency indicators point to a strong, albeit partial, rebound in Q3 activity after the low in Q2. However, the dynamics of the fourth quarter seems to be slowing down. Surveys of purchasing managers show that firms in the United States, the Eurozone, China and Brazil,

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for example, consistently increased production in July and August from the previous month, while the opposite was observed elsewhere (for example, India, Japan and Korea) - (Figure 1.7).

In September, these indicators indicate higher activity in the manufacturing industry, but a slight decline in the service sector, which most likely reflects an increase in the number of infections. Other high-frequency data indicate stabilization in activity, as reflected, for example, in daily consumer spending in the United States.

The gap in income prospects between advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (excluding China) caused by this pandemic is projected to worsen. We raise our 2020 outlook for advanced economies to -5.8 percent, with growth rebounding to 3.9 percent in 2021. Our numbers for emerging and developing economies (excluding China) are lowered, with growth projected at -5.7 percent in 2020, then recovering to 5 percent in 2021. However, aggregate per capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies (excluding China) in 2020–2021 is projected to be lower than in advanced economies.

Projections are revised upward for advanced economies and China and downwardly for emerging market and developing economies.

Figure 3.Annual change in percentage of per capita income.

Note: Compiled based on IMF calculations.

In both advanced economies and emerging and developing economies other than China, output will remain below 2019 levels even next year. By the end of 2021, the decline in output from pre-pandemic levels will be -8.1% for emerging market and developing countries other than China, significantly more than the decline for advanced economies -4.7%.

After the recovery began in 2021, global economic growth is expected to gradually slow to about 3.5 percent over the medium term. The cumulative production decline from the pre-pandemic trajectory is projected to increase from $ 11 trillion in 2020-21 to $ 28 trillion in 2020-2025. This represents a major step back in improving the average standard of living in all groups of countries [5- 8]. Significant global fiscal support of nearly $ 12 trillion and massive rate cuts, liquidity injections, and asset purchases by central banks helped save lives and livelihoods and avert financial disaster.

Much remains to be done to ensure sustainable recovery. First, greater international cooperation is needed to end this health crisis. Great progress has been made in the development of tests, therapies and vaccines, but only with close cooperation between countries will they be sufficiently produced and widely distributed in all parts of the world. We estimate that if healthcare solutions become available faster and on a broader scale than our baseline projection, this could lead to a cumulative increase in global revenue of nearly US $ 9 trillion by the end of 2025, boosting revenues in all countries and narrowing the gap. in income.

Second, policy measures, where possible, should be strongly focused on limiting the long- term economic damage from this crisis. Governments should continue to provide income support through clearly targeted cash transfers, wage subsidies and unemployment insurance. In order to prevent large-scale bankruptcies and ensure that workers can return to productive jobs, vulnerable but viable firms should continue to receive support, where possible, in the form of tax deferrals, a debt service moratorium and equity injections similar to equity [9- 12].

This is the worst crisis since the Great Depression, and recovering from this scourge will require significant policy innovation, both nationally and internationally. The problems are enormous.

But there is reason for hope. Exceptional policy responses, including the creation of a pandemic economic recovery fund in the European Union and the use of digital technology to deliver social assistance, are a powerful reminder that well-designed policies protect people and collective economic well-being. The IMF has provided funding at a record pace to 81 member countries since the pandemic began, provided debt relief and called for a prolonged suspension of debt servicing for low-income countries and for reform of the international debt architecture. Building on these actions,

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4

The advanced economies Emerging and developing

economies except China China April 2020 June 2020 октябрь 2020

Figure 3. Annual change in percentage of per capita income.

Note: Compiled based on IMF calculations.

In both advanced economies and emerging and developing economies other than China, output will remain below 2019 levels even next year. By the end of 2021, the decline in output from pre-pandemic levels will be -8.1% for emerging market and developing countries other than China, significantly more than the decline for advanced economies -4.7%.

After the recovery began in 2021, global economic growth is expected to gradually slow to about 3.5 percent over the medium term. The cumulative production decline from the pre-pandemic trajectory is projected to increase from $ 11 trillion in 2020-21 to $ 28 trillion in 2020-2025. This represents a major step back in improving the average standard of living in all groups of countries [5-8].

Significant global fiscal support of nearly $ 12 trillion and massive rate cuts, liquidity injections, and asset purchases by central banks helped save lives and livelihoods and avert financial disaster.

Much remains to be done to ensure sustainable recovery. First, greater international cooperation is needed to end this health crisis. Great progress has been made in the development of tests, therapies and vaccines, but only with close cooperation between countries will they be sufficiently produced and widely distributed in all parts of the world. We estimate that if healthcare solutions become available faster and on a broader scale than our baseline projection, this could lead to a cumulative increase in global revenue of nearly US $ 9 trillion by the end of 2025, boosting revenues in all countries and narrowing the gap. in income.

Second, policy measures, where possible, should be strongly focused on limiting the long-term economic damage from this crisis. Governments should continue to provide income support through clearly targeted cash transfers, wage subsidies and unemployment insurance. In order to prevent large-scale bankruptcies and ensure that workers can return to productive jobs, vulnerable but viable firms should continue to receive support, where possible, in the form of tax deferrals, a debt service moratorium and equity injections similar to equity [9- 12].

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This is the worst crisis since the Great Depression, and recovering from this scourge will require significant policy innovation, both nationally and internationally. The problems are enormous. But there is reason for hope. Exceptional policy responses, including the creation of a pandemic economic recovery fund in the European Union and the use of digital technology to deliver social assistance, are a powerful reminder that well-designed policies protect people and collective economic well-being. The IMF has provided funding at a record pace to 81 member countries since the pandemic began, provided debt relief and called for a prolonged suspension of debt servicing for low-income countries and for reform of the international debt architecture.

Building on these actions, policies in the next phase of the crisis should focus on lasting improvements in the global economy that create a prosperous future for all.

For all the G7 countries, IMF experts predict a deep economic recession for 2020 - by 5-7% at once. As with most other G20 countries.

The average price of oil in 2020 will be $ 35.6 per barrel, according to IMF experts. This is 42% less than in 2019. In 2021, it will be only slightly higher - $ 37.9 per barrel. And if inflation in 2020-2021 in many countries may not yet differ much from its general dynamics over the last 10 years, then the increase in unemployment will be quite noticeable [13].

Figure 4. Forecasted inflation and unemployment rates for 2020-2021.

In developing countries, the IMF forecasts GDP growth in 2021 to reach 5.9%, 4.6% according to the World Bank and 3.4% according to Fitch. The expected level of GDP in developing countries will remain slightly below the pre-crisis level of 2019.

«Fundamental uncertainty about the development of the pandemic remains the main factor determining the further development of the global economy and hindering the assessment of the balance of risks.» All this indicates that the downturn in the economy of Kazakhstan by the end of 2020 will be much stronger than the 0.9% projected by the Ministry of National Economy. So, according to the expectations of the fund itself, the real GDP of Kazakhstan this year will decrease by 2.5%. At the same time, the assessments of our AERC center indicate that the downturn in the economy of our country (taking into account the new conditions for reducing oil production under the OPEC + agreement and revising the prospects for global economic growth) in 2020 will be more significant.

More than one trillion tenge has been spent by the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan to support citizens and the economy. These measures were implemented by reducing the expenditures of the republican budget by 532.8 billion tenge; bringing the budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP - 840.7 billion tenge.

From January 1, 2020, for 3 years, an exemption from taxes on income of micro and small businesses that make settlements with the budget on the basis of special tax regimes has been introduced. A moratorium has been introduced on inspections of the same business entities.

At the same time, taking into account the introduction of the state of emergency, in order to minimize contacts, it was decided to grant a delay of 30 calendar days for the declarations of legal entities and individuals, the deadline for submission of which falls on the period of the state of emergency. Also, the Tax Code provides for a deferral of debt and the suspension of the accrual of penalties in a state of emergency.

However, in order to obtain a deferral, you need to have collateral or a bank guarantee. In this regard, a mechanism is being considered that will simplify the receipt of a deferral for the period of the state of emergency and will allow not to accrue penalties on arising tax liabilities. In terms of administration, for the period of the state of emergency, notifications will be suspended based on the results of in-house control, the number of tax and customs inspections with on-site visits will be minimized, and administrative liability issues will be considered after the end of the state of emergency. Other support measures are not considered.

For taxes arising from the payroll, it should be noted that for wages paid in March, the tax must be paid

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by April 25th. If, accordingly, wages are not accrued and paid, no tax liability arises. Thus, the deadline for submitting tax reports for 2019 has been extended by 30 calendar days, i.e. by April 30, 2020, subject to its electronic submission. Accordingly, declarations submitted by April 30, 2020 will be deemed to have been submitted on time. This extension applies to the submission of the following tax reporting forms for 2019 - 100.00, 110.00, 150.00, 220.00, 230.00, 240.00, 700.00, 860.00, 870.00, 871.00, 920.00. Regardless of the degree of risk of the company, absolutely all companies have extended the deadline for submitting tax reports without submitting an application. «

At the same time, a deferral was granted only in relation to the submission of tax reports, tax payments must be made in a timely manner, which does not contain significant concessions.

At the same time, these measures are of a cautious nature in our opinion and will not fully meet the government’s request not to terminate labor relations with employees.

I would like to refer to international experience.

Italian Decree - Law No. 18 of March 17, 2020 (Cura-Italia).

For employees of individuals, the Italian legislator has provided for a deferral from the payment of individual income tax withheld at the source of payment, all social contributions, as well as the provision of tax returns until May 31, 2020.

For the self-employed, exemption from income tax is provided for an amount equal to 60% of the amount of paid rent payments (taxcredit).

These exemptions are provided for taxpayers who:

Have tax residency in Italy;

The annual turnover does not exceed two million euros for 2019.

Special provisions of the Austrian Ministry of Finance (BMF-Info - IV (IV) GZ.2020-0.178.784)

Entrepreneurs can count on an indefinite grace period for VAT, corporate tax advance payments for 2020 and salary taxes until the pandemic in Austria ends, provided they prove that the coronavirus pandemic has negatively affected their business: for example, the imposition of quarantines, the closure of educational institutions, restrictions on outdoor exposure, confirmation may be the cancellation of sports and cultural events, the violation of delivery times were caused by a change in the behavior of counterparties associated with the pandemic [14].

The Dutch Tax and Customs Administration preferred a point approach. In particular, it allows a deferral of taxes, including salary taxes, VAT for at least three months, however, an entrepreneur may ask for a deferral for an indefinite period, until the end of the pandemic, but in this case, the tax authority has the right to require additional documents.

The penalty rate is reduced from 4% to 0.1% of the overdue tax amount starting from March 23, 2020.

Discussion. The Croatian tax authorities will allow you to defer or pay in installments all tax payments, social security contributions, mandatory non-tax payments for the next six months, which can be paid within the next 24 months (!), While the self-employed are exempt from income tax for the entire period of the pandemic.

As a result, analyzing the above measures of tax incentives, three main directions can be noted, how governments seek to stimulate their business sector through taxes:

Salary taxes - governments consider it possible either to abolish them or to pay by installments;

VAT - foreign authorities see a way out in its installment plan or in the establishment of a special temporary reduced rate, and often both the installment plan and the special rate are used immediately. In a separate line for Kazakhstan, the author of the article recommends revising the VAT refund procedure as an incentive for the export component of the economy of Kazakhstan;

Taxes with a firm tax base (property tax, land tax) - when the demand for work and services rendered and goods sold falls - become especially painful for Kazakhstani and not only business.

In Kazakhstan, the issue of paying salary personal income tax (IIT) and related mandatory non-tax payments, even before the start of the pandemic, was extremely acute.

Here is a simple arithmetic of tax and near-tax liabilities arising from the payment of wages in Kazakhstan in the amount of 100,000 tenge on hand:

(119,537 tenge (salary) - (11,954 tenge OPV 10%) - 42,500 tenge (non-taxable minimum wage)) - IIT (10%) = 100,000 tenge.

As a result, the employee formally pays 19% of the salary in case of taxation (OPV + IIT) = 19,537 tenge.

The employer, in addition to his obligation to withhold these payments at the source of payment, is obliged to pay the following obligations from his own funds:

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Social tax - 6 342 tenge;

Social contributions - 3,765 tenge;

Compulsory social medical contributions (OSMS) - 2 391 tenge.

As a result, the sum of all tax and near-tax liabilities for payment of “net” 100,000 tenge will amount to 32,035 tenge.

In total, the rate of maintenance for an employee with a salary of 100,000 tenge, the employer and the employee (although in fact only the employer pays) pay 32,035 tenge or 32% (the effective rate of tax and about tax losses for the employer).

Analyzing the measures set out in the Government Resolution, we can safely say that it has not revealed its full potential, the provisions of shopping and entertainment centers («SEC») as owners of real estate and, therefore, payers of property tax (tax with a firm tax base) have been taken into account, while, It should be noted that the Government also included theaters, exhibitions and physical culture, health and sports facilities in this category, while it is obvious that the latter facilities are several times smaller in comparison with the shopping and entertainment centers in the republic.

Presumably, the mall lobby in the current version of the Government Decree was able to reflect its interests.

However, the interests of the entire business sector, which the First President and Head of State urged not to dismiss their employees, were not taken into account by the Government Resolution.

In this connection, it seems correct to introduce several initiatives:

With regard to VAT for taxpayers who meet the criteria of «substance» (or not):

- to reduce the VAT rate to 6-7%;

The specified criterion of «substance» may include the following requirements:

- average tax burden ratio for 2019 by industry;

- More than three employees on the staff;

- The taxpayer is registered and carries out his business in cities, regions where quarantine has been declared.

With regard to the salary personal income tax and pseudo-tax mandatory contributions and payments, set the rates to «0», however, it would be reasonable to leave the obligation to pay the compulsory health insurance due to their medical, and, therefore, relevant to the pandemic orientation.

In other words, set a «0» rate for OPV, salary personal income tax, social tax and social security contributions during quarantine.

It is undeniable that the adoption of tax incentives in terms of taxes with a firm tax base will be tangible, however, not directed to the benefit of all taxpayers, therefore, an early adjustment of VAT and salary obligations will help business entities to retain jobs and avoid social tension in Kazakhstan.

The country classification in WEO 2020 divides the world into two main groups: advanced economies and emerging market economies, and developing economies. This classification is not based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, and has evolved over time. The goal is to facilitate analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful method for organizing the data. Table A provides an overview of the country classification, showing the number of countries in each grouping by region and summarizing some key indicators of their relative size (GDP at purchasing power parity, total exports of goods and services, and population).

Some countries remain outside the country classification and are therefore not included in the analysis.

Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not members of the IMF, and therefore the IMF does not control their economies.

General characteristics and composition of groups in the World Economic Outlook classification

Advanced economies. This group includes 39 countries. The seven largest by GDP at market exchange rates - the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada - make up a subset of major advanced economies often referred to as the G7. Eurozone members also stand out as a subgroup.

Emerging market and developing countries. The group of emerging market and developing economies (156) includes all non-advanced economies.

Regional Breakdown of Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Emerging and Developing Asia;

developing Europe (sometimes also called “Central and Eastern Europe”); Latin America and the Caribbean;

The Middle East and Central Asia (which includes the regional subgroups of the Caucasus and Central Asia;

the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan); and sub-Saharan Africa.

Emerging market and developing economies are also classified according to analytical criteria reflecting the composition of export earnings and the difference between net creditors and net debtor economies.

The HIPC group includes countries that have or have been considered by the IMF and the World Bank

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to participate in their debt initiative, known as the HIPC Initiative, which aims to reduce the external debt burden of all HIPC eligible “sustainable” levels in a fairly short period of time. Many of these countries have already taken advantage of debt relief and have withdrawn from the initiative.

LIDCs are countries with per capita incomes below a certain threshold (set at $ 2,700 in 2016 according to the World Bank Atlas methodology), the structural characteristics of which are consistent with limited development and structural change, and external financial relations are not close enough to their existence.

are widely regarded as emerging market economies.

Such documents are an important tool in a coherent approach to achieving the goal of poverty reduction, as well as an important tool for gaining access to concessional financing. The issue of securing debt sustainability in middle-income countries continues to be a concern. Noteworthy is the new approach proposed by the Paris Club at the meeting in Evian to the debt issues of non-HIPC countries.

Conclusions. As a recommendation, an adjustment to the required advance payments is proposed based on a revision of the expected tax liability that more closely matches the taxpayer’s probable final tax liability, taking into account the expected impact of the current situation on commercial turnover (instead of taking into account last year’s sales or profits).

Cancellation or postponement of social security contributions by employers and self-employed persons and payroll taxes. This proposal is especially relevant for industries that have suffered significant economic consequences as a result of the imposed restrictions. The sectors covered can be expanded as the economic impact becomes more widespread.

Deferral of the payment of VAT, customs or excise duties for imported goods (for example, food, medicine, means of production), prevention of abuse through effective administration [15].

Accelerating the return of excess input VAT, accompanied by targeted measures to limit the risks of fraud.

Deferral or waiver of taxes that are levied on a tax base that is independent of the immediate business cycle, such as current corporate property taxes or business turnover taxes.

Adjustment of provisions related to the carry forward of losses to subsequent tax periods. Converting a carry forward of losses to subsequent tax periods into a carry forward where companies can choose to pay a lump sum cash payment equal to the accumulated tax loss multiplied by the statutory corporate income tax rate.

Tax exemption for overtime work in health care and other sectors related to emergencies. To reward people for working extra hours and in potentially hazardous conditions, governments could provide some of the exemptions for labor income from income tax and social security contributions.

Create opportunities for workers to receive partial unemployment benefits or other forms of partial income replacement, reducing the economic need for employers to resort to layoffs.

Temporary provision of extended social benefits to individuals and workers who would normally not be eligible for such benefits (increased access to unemployment benefits, sick leave or family leave, including for the self-employed; increase in standard cash benefits to offset short-term impact for low-income households).

In terms of tax administration, it is advisable to consider a number of measures to help taxpayers.

Among them: providing additional time for filing tax returns and paying tax payments by taxpayers affected by Covid-19, eliminating fines and late fees, reducing the number of inspections, expanding interaction via digital communication channels, etc.

It seems that in the long term, tax measures aimed at minimizing the negative consequences of Covid-19 should be expanded.

Жагыпарова A.O.^1*, Алибекова Б.А.¹, Курманалина A.², Бекбусинова Г.K.³, Баева Д.A.⁴

1Л.Н. Гумилев атындағы Еуразия ұлттық университеті, Нұр-Сұлтан, Қазақстан;

2Қазтұтынуодағы Қарағанды университеті, Қарағанды, Қазақстан;

3»Тұран-Астана» университеті», Нұр-Сұлтан, Қазақстан;

4Оңтүстік Орал мемлекеттік университеті, Челябінск, Ресей.

COVID-19 ПАНДЕМИЯСЫ ЖӘНЕ ОНЫҢ ӘЛЕМДІК ЭКОНОМИКАҒА ӘСЕРІ

Аннотация. COVID-19 пандемиясы әлемдік қауымдастық үшін үлкен соққы болды және әлемнің көптеген елдерінің экономикасында күрт құлдырауға әкелді. Базалық болжамға сәйкес, 2020 жылы

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әлемдік ЖІӨ – нің 5,2 пайызға қысқаруы күтілуде-әлемдік экономикадағы бұл құлдырау көптеген онжылдықтардағы ең терең болады.

Пандемия көптеген онжылдықтар ішінде әлемдік экономикадағы ең терең құлдырауды тудырды.

Соңғы салдары әлі белгісіз болғанымен, пандемия дамып келе жатқан нарық пен дамушы елдердің басым көпшілігінде рецессияға әкеледі. Ол сондай-ақ Еңбек өнімділігі мен өндірістің әлеуетті көлемі үшін ұзақ мерзімді теріс салдарларға алып келеді. Осы кезеңдегі басым стратегиялық міндеттер адамдар үшін салдарларды жұмсарту, таяудағы перспективаға экономикалық залалды қысқарту болып табылады. Дағдарыстың әлсіреуімен тұрақты саясатқа деген адалдықты сенімді түрде растау және ұзақ мерзімді перспективаларды нығайту үшін қажетті реформаларды жүзеге асыру қажет болады.

Ерекше маңызы бар.

Пандемиядан бұрын кейбір аймақтық экономикалар ағымдағы шоттың жоғары тапшылығын қаржыландыру үшін қысқа мерзімді капитал ағынына сүйенді.

COVID-19 пандемиясы валюта резервтерінің күрт сарқылуына әкелді, бұл экономиканы капиталдың кетуіне осал етеді және сонымен бірге орталық банктердің одан әрі теріс сыртқы күйзелістердің әсерін азайту мүмкіндігін шектейді.

Пандемияның ұзаққа созылған сипаты немесе инвесторлардың көңіл-күйін күрт қайта бағалау, атап айтқанда, активтердің сапасына алаңдаушылық, міндеттемелердің орындалмауына және проблемалық несиелердің өсуіне әкелуі мүмкін.

Түйінді сөздер: Covid-19 пандемиясы, әлемдік экономика, ЖІӨ, дағдарыс, экономиканың құлдырауы.

Жагыпарова A.O.^1*, Алибекова Б.А.¹, Курманалина A.², Бекбусинова Г.K.³, Баева Д.A.⁴

1Евразийский национальный университет имени Л.Н. Гумилева, Нур-Султан, Казахстан;

2Карагандинский Университет Казпотребсоюза, Караганда, Казахстан;

3Университет «Туран-Астана», Нур-Султан, Казахстан;

4Южно-Уральский государственный университет, Челябинск, Россия.

ПАНДЕМИЯ COVID-19 И ЕЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ НА МИРОВУЮ ЭКОНОМИКУ

Аннотация. Пандемия COVID-19 стала мощнейшим шоком для мирового сообщества и привела к резкому спаду в экономике многих стран мира. Согласно базовому прогнозу, в 2020 году ожидается сокращение мирового ВВП на 5,2 процента – этот спад в мировой экономике станет самым глубоким за многие десятилетия.

Пандемия спровоцировала самый глубокий спад в мировой экономике за многие десятилетия.

И хотя окончательные последствия пока неясны, пандемия приведет к рецессии в подавляющем большинстве стран с формирующимся рынком и развивающихся стран. Она также повлечет за собой долговременные негативные последствия для производительности труда и потенциального объема производства. Приоритетными стратегическими задачами на данном этапе являются смягчение последствий для людей сокращение экономического ущерба на ближайшую перспективу.

С ослаблением кризиса необходимо будет убедительно подтвердить приверженность устойчивой политике и осуществить необходимые реформы, чтобы укрепить долгосрочные перспективы. Особое значение.

Некоторые региональные экономики до пандемии полагались на краткосрочный приток капитала для финансирования высокого дефицита счета текущих операций.

Пандемия COVID-19 привела к резкому истощению валютных резервов, что делает экономики более уязвимыми к оттоку капитала и одновременно ограничивает способность центральных банков смягчать последствия дальнейших негативных внешних шоков.

Затяжной характер пандемии или резкая переоценка настроений инвесторов, вызванная, в частности, озабоченностью качеством активов, может привести к каскаду неисполнения обязательств и росту проблемных кредитов.

Ключевые слова: пандемия COVID-19, мировая экономика, ВВП, кризис, спад экономики.

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38 Information about authors:

Zhagyparova A. – Ph.D., Associate Professor of “Finance” ENU named after LN Gumilyov; Zhagyparova_

[email protected]; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4792-9450;

Alibekova B. – L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Professor at the Department of “State Audit”, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, e-mail: [email protected], https://orcid.

org/0000-0001-7522-4445;

Kurmanalina A. – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Professor of the Department «Bank Management and Financial Markets» of Karaganda University of Kazpotrebsoyuz, [email protected]; https://orcid.org/0000- 0002-0702-8634;

Bekbusinova G.K. – Ph.D., Associate Professor of Economics and Innovative Business, University of Turan- Astana”; [email protected], https://orcid.org/ 0000-000 1-5552-5849;

Baeva D.A. – associate Professor of the Department of financial technologies, South Ural State University, Ph. D. in Economics, associate Professor, [email protected], https://orcid.org/0000-000 2 - 8772 – 7311.

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